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la tensi&#243;n arterial sist&#243;lica y la edad<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0205"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">6</span></a>&#46; En los servicios de urgencias se sigue utilizando el <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">Trauma and Injury Severity Score</span> &#40;TRISS&#41; como modelo de riesgo de muerte<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0210"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">7</span></a>&#46; El TRISS es un modelo mixto que combina la repercusi&#243;n fisiol&#243;gica &#40;RTS&#41; seg&#250;n las lesiones anat&#243;micas &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">Injury Severity Score</span> &#91;ISS&#93;&#41; y el mecanismo lesional &#40;contuso o penetrante&#41;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0210"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">7</span></a>&#46;</p><p id="par0020" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">En los &#250;ltimos a&#241;os se han desarrollado diferentes scores &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">Probability of Survival</span> &#91;PS&#93;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0215"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">8</span></a>&#44; <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">Trauma Risk Adjustment Model</span> &#91;TRAM&#93;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0195"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">4</span></a>&#44; <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">Revised Injury Severity Classification</span> &#91;RISC <span class="elsevierStyleSmallCaps">I</span>-II<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0220"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">9</span></a>&#93;&#41; que han logrado mejorar la capacidad de discriminaci&#243;n y calibraci&#243;n al incluir otras variables &#40;comorbilidad&#44; ventilaci&#243;n mec&#225;nica&#44; hemoglobina&#44; exceso de base&#44; etc&#46;&#41; disponibles en los servicios de urgencias&#46;</p><p id="par0025" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">En las unidades de cuidados intensivos &#40;UCI&#41; se utilizan <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">scores</span> de gravedad como el <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation</span> &#40;APACHE <span class="elsevierStyleSmallCaps">II</span>&#41;&#44; el <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">Simplified Acute Physiologic Score</span> &#40;SAPS <span class="elsevierStyleSmallCaps">II</span>&#41; o el <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">Mortality Probability Models</span> &#40;MPM <span class="elsevierStyleSmallCaps">II</span>&#41;&#46; Estos <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">scores</span> valoran el estado previo del paciente &#40;edad&#41;&#44; las comorbilidades asociadas y la repercusi&#243;n fisiol&#243;gica&#46; Por el contrario&#44; no han sido dise&#241;ados espec&#237;ficamente para la poblaci&#243;n traum&#225;tica&#44; ya que carecen de una valoraci&#243;n anat&#243;mica de las lesiones producidas ni del tipo de mecanismo lesional que lo produce<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0225"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">10</span></a>&#46;</p><p id="par0030" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Actualmente no existe consenso de qu&#233; <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">score</span> de gravedad &#40;anat&#243;mico&#44; fisiol&#243;gico&#44; mixto&#41; hay que utilizar en los pacientes traum&#225;ticos ingresados en UCI<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0190"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">3</span></a>&#46;</p><p id="par0035" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">El objetivo de este trabajo es comparar <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">scores</span> anat&#243;micos &#40;ISS<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0230"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">11</span></a>&#44; <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">New Injury Severity Score</span> &#91;NISS&#93;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0235"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">12</span></a>&#41;&#44; fisiol&#243;gicos &#40;RTS<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0200"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">5</span></a>&#44; MPM <span class="elsevierStyleSmallCaps">II</span>-24<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0240"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">13</span></a>&#44; APACHE II<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0245"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">14</span></a>&#41; y mixto &#40;TRISS<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0210"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">7</span></a>&#41; en pacientes traum&#225;ticos graves en las primeras 24<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>h de ingreso en UCI y encontrar modelos que puedan combinar estos <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">scores</span> para mejorar su precisi&#243;n&#46;</p></span><span id="sec0010" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0070">Material y m&#233;todo</span><p id="par0040" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Estudio prospectivo de cohortes durante el periodo de tiempo comprendido entre enero de 2005 y diciembre de 2012&#44; en una UCI de 16 camas polivalentes del Hospital Universitario Arnau de Vilanova de Lleida &#40;con 450 camas&#41; con un &#225;rea de referencia de 450&#46;000 habitantes&#46; Nuestro centro est&#225; catalogado de nivel <span class="elsevierStyleSmallCaps">ii</span> 2<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>b&#44; al disponer de servicio de Neurocirug&#237;a las 24<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>h al d&#237;a y de Medicina Intensiva&#46;</p><p id="par0045" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Criterios de inclusi&#243;n&#58; todos los pacientes mayores de 16 a&#241;os de causa traum&#225;tica ingresados en UCI m&#225;s de 24<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>h&#46;</p><p id="par0050" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Criterio de exclusi&#243;n&#58; datos incompletos&#44; traslado a otro centro o muerte posterior a los 30 d&#237;as de su ingreso&#46;</p><p id="par0055" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Se comunic&#243; al comit&#233; de &#233;tica del hospital la realizaci&#243;n del estudio&#46; Se determin&#243; que no era necesario el consentimiento informado de los pacientes ya que los datos recogidos eran imprescindibles para su diagn&#243;stico y seguimiento cl&#237;nico&#46; Se asegur&#243; en todo momento el anonimato de los pacientes&#46;</p><p id="par0060" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Se incluyeron las variables epidemiol&#243;gicas de edad&#44; g&#233;nero&#44; fecha del ingreso en la UCI&#44; etiolog&#237;a &#40;tr&#225;fico&#44; laboral y otros&#41; y mecanismo del traumatismo&#46;</p><p id="par0065" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Se utiliz&#243; el concepto de insuficiencia org&#225;nica previa seg&#250;n definici&#243;n del modelo APACHE II<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0245"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">14</span></a>&#46; Se clasific&#243; la comorbilidad seg&#250;n la clasificaci&#243;n de la <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status</span> &#40;ASA-PS&#41;&#58; normal &#40;ASA-PS-1&#41;&#44; moderado &#40;ASA-PS-2&#41; y severo &#40;ASA-PS-3&#44; -4&#44; -5&#41;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0250"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">15</span></a>&#46;</p><span id="sec0015" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0075"><span class="elsevierStyleItalic">Scores</span> de gravedad</span><p id="par0070" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Se recogieron las variables de frecuencia respiratoria&#44; tensi&#243;n arterial y nivel neurol&#243;gico &#40;GCS&#41; en la fase prehospitalaria para el c&#225;lculo &#40;RTS&#41;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0200"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">5</span></a>&#46;</p><p id="par0075" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Se llev&#243; a cabo un registro de las lesiones traum&#225;ticas de acuerdo con el <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">Abbreviated Injury Scale</span> &#40;AIS-2005&#41; <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">updated</span> 2008<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0255"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">16</span></a> para el c&#225;lculo de la gravedad anat&#243;mica &#40;ISS&#44; NISS&#41;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0230"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">11&#44;12</span></a>&#46; La probabilidad de supervivencia se calcul&#243; de forma prospectiva seg&#250;n metodolog&#237;a TRISS<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0210"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">7</span></a>&#46;</p><p id="par0080" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">El nivel de gravedad MPM II<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0240"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">13</span></a> y APACHE II<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0245"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">14</span></a> se calcul&#243; con los datos obtenidos en las primeras 24<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>h de ingreso en la UCI&#46;</p><p id="par0085" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Se realiz&#243; un seguimiento de la estancia y mortalidad a 30 d&#237;as tanto en UCI como durante su ingreso en planta de hospitalizaci&#243;n&#46;</p></span><span id="sec0020" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0080">An&#225;lisis estad&#237;stico</span><p id="par0090" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Las variables discretas se describen como porcentajes y las continuas como media<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#177;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>desviaci&#243;n est&#225;ndar&#46; Para la comparaci&#243;n entre los distintos grupos &#40;supervivientes y no supervivientes&#41; se emple&#243; el test estad&#237;stico de <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">Mann-Whitney</span> en variables continuas &#40;no asunci&#243;n de caracter&#237;sticas param&#233;tricas de las variables&#41; o el test de chi-cuadrado para las categ&#243;ricas&#46; La correlaci&#243;n entre los distintos <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">scores</span> analizados se realiz&#243; mediante el c&#225;lculo del coeficiente de correlaci&#243;n de <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">Spearman</span>&#46;</p><p id="par0095" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">La precisi&#243;n de los modelos de probabilidad de muerte a 30 d&#237;as utilizados y creados se valor&#243; midiendo sus propiedades de discriminaci&#243;n y calibraci&#243;n&#59; discriminaci&#243;n con la realizaci&#243;n de las curvas ROC y el c&#225;lculo de su &#225;rea bajo la curva con su intervalo de confianza al 95&#37;&#46; La calibraci&#243;n valor&#243; la concordancia entre la mortalidad observada y la esperada seg&#250;n los modelos y mediante el c&#225;lculo del estad&#237;stico H de <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">Hosmer-Lemeshow</span> &#40;asumiendo buena calibraci&#243;n con p<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#62;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#44;05&#41;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0260"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">17&#44;18</span></a>&#46;</p><p id="par0100" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Se crearon modelos combinados&#44; con los distintos <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">scores</span> utilizados&#44; mediante metodolog&#237;a de &#225;rbol de clasificaci&#243;n &#40;m&#243;dulo <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">AnswerTree</span> del programa SPSS &#91;versi&#243;n 20&#46;0&#93;&#41; con posibilidad de modelo de &#225;rbol de clasificaci&#243;n tipo <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">Chi Square Automatic Interaction Detection</span> &#40;CHAID&#41;&#46; Par&#225;metros del modelo&#46; Reglas de partici&#243;n&#58; Utiliza el test de chi-cuadrado &#40;con la correcci&#243;n de Bonferroni&#41; para determinar la significaci&#243;n estad&#237;stica en las particiones recursivas que va generando&#46; Sistema de validaci&#243;n interna <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#40;cross validation&#41;</span> con 10 particiones&#46; Criterio de parada de crecimiento del &#225;rbol con disminuci&#243;n del error total y n&#250;mero m&#237;nimo de casos en los nodos terminales &#40;25 casos&#41;&#46; Nivel de significaci&#243;n de divisi&#243;n de nodos y de fusi&#243;n de categor&#237;as con p<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#60;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#44;05<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0270"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">19</span></a>&#46;</p><p id="par0105" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Para el c&#225;lculo estad&#237;stico se utiliz&#243; el programa inform&#225;tico SPSS &#40;v20&#46;0&#41;&#46; Se consider&#243; significativo todo valor de p<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#60;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#44;05&#46;</p></span></span><span id="sec0025" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0085">Resultados</span><p id="par0110" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Durante el periodo de estudio 786 pacientes cumplieron los criterios de inclusi&#243;n&#44; se excluyeron 6 &#40;por traslado a otro centro&#41; quedando como grupo de estudio 780 pacientes&#46;</p><p id="par0115" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">En la <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl0005">tabla 1</a> se describen sus caracter&#237;sticas demogr&#225;ficas diferenciadas seg&#250;n supervivencia&#46; En general son pacientes j&#243;venes&#44; con predominio de hombres&#44; con pocos antecedentes patol&#243;gicos e ingresados desde el Servicio de Urgencias del Hospital&#46; Los pacientes que fallecen tienen m&#225;s antecedentes &#40;HTA&#44; cardiopat&#237;a&#44; insuficiencia org&#225;nica&#41; o comorbilidades &#40;ASA&#41; con una menor estancia en UCI y hospitalaria&#46;</p><elsevierMultimedia ident="tbl0005"></elsevierMultimedia><p id="par0120" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Las puntuaciones de los diferentes <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">scores</span> analizados se observan en la <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl0010">tabla 2</a>&#46; Todos los valores se mostraron m&#225;s altos&#44; de forma significativa&#44; en los pacientes que fallecieron excepto RTS &#40;con valores m&#225;s bajos&#41;&#44; que por su propia forma de creaci&#243;n tiene una interpretaci&#243;n inversa &#40;muestra valores m&#225;s bajos en los pacientes m&#225;s graves&#41;&#46;</p><elsevierMultimedia ident="tbl0010"></elsevierMultimedia><p id="par0125" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Existe una buena correlaci&#243;n entre los distintos modelos empleados &#40;ver <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl0015">tabla 3</a>&#41;&#46; El valor negativo de algunos de los valores de correlaci&#243;n es debido a las caracter&#237;sticas mencionadas del RTS&#46;</p><elsevierMultimedia ident="tbl0015"></elsevierMultimedia><p id="par0130" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">En la <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig0005">figura 1</a> se muestra la capacidad discriminativa de los <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">scores</span> seg&#250;n su &#225;rea bajo la curva ROC&#46; El modelo APACHE <span class="elsevierStyleSmallCaps">II</span> obtiene el &#225;rea m&#225;s alta &#40;0&#44;88 &#91;0&#44;83-0&#44;90&#93;&#41;&#46;</p><elsevierMultimedia ident="fig0005"></elsevierMultimedia><p id="par0135" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">En la <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig0010">figura 2</a> se muestra el comportamiento de los <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">scores</span> anat&#243;micos ISS y NISS y del fisiol&#243;gico RTS&#46; Observamos en la <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig0010">figura 2</a> que la escala ISS no sigue una funci&#243;n creciente de mortalidad al ingreso en UCI&#44; produci&#233;ndose picos de mortalidad en los valores el cuadrado y una mala correlaci&#243;n en los valores bajos&#46; Sucede lo mismo en la escala NISS&#46; Si se observa que la escala RTS tiene un comportamiento lineal&#46;</p><elsevierMultimedia ident="fig0010"></elsevierMultimedia><p id="par0140" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">En la <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig0015">figura 3</a> se muestran las curvas de calibraci&#243;n de los modelos fisiol&#243;gicos APACHE <span class="elsevierStyleSmallCaps">II</span> y MPM <span class="elsevierStyleSmallCaps">II-</span>24 y del TRISS&#46; Se incluyen los valores del test H de <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">Hosmer-Lemeshow</span> que muestran una mala calibraci&#243;n&#46; En el modelo APACHE <span class="elsevierStyleSmallCaps">II</span> se observa que a mortalidades bajas la mortalidad observada es mayor que la esperada&#44; siendo inversa si la probabilidad de muerte es elevada&#46;</p><elsevierMultimedia ident="fig0015"></elsevierMultimedia><p id="par0145" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">El modelo de &#225;rbol de clasificaci&#243;n que consigue mejor valor de &#225;rea bajo la curva ROC &#40;0&#44;88 &#91;0&#44;84-0&#44;90&#93;&#41; es el que combina APACHE <span class="elsevierStyleSmallCaps">II</span> e ISS &#40;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig0020">fig&#46; 4</a>&#41;&#46; Elige como primera variable la puntuaci&#243;n APACHE <span class="elsevierStyleSmallCaps">II</span> y realiza 4 subdivisiones coherentes en aumento del porcentaje en mortalidad&#46; Es en el grupo de valores entre 10 y 17 puntos de APACHE <span class="elsevierStyleSmallCaps">II</span> &#40;con 245 pacientes&#41; donde el sistema ISS diferencia 2 subgrupos con un punto de corte de 22&#46; Como se aprecia en la <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig0020">figura 4</a> corresponden a los nodos terminales 5 y 6&#46;</p><elsevierMultimedia ident="fig0020"></elsevierMultimedia><p id="par0150" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">El an&#225;lisis de estos 2 subgrupos &#40;ver <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl0020">tabla 4</a>&#41; encuentra que&#44; sin haber diferencias en la puntuaci&#243;n media de APACHE <span class="elsevierStyleSmallCaps">II</span>&#44; la mortalidad es muy diferente &#40;7&#44;5 vs&#46; 25&#37;&#59; p<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#60;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#44;001&#41;&#46; Estos 2 subgrupos son diferentes en algunas variables&#46; En el subgrupo con ISS<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#8804;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>22 puntos los pacientes son m&#225;s mayores y con mayor presencia de insuficiencia org&#225;nica previa y comorbilidad&#46; Los pacientes con ISS<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#62;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>22 tienen valores de GCS menor&#46; Vimos que la presencia de traumatismo craneoencef&#225;lico era mayor en este grupo &#40;77&#44;8 vs&#46; 48&#59; p<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#44;046&#41;&#46;</p><elsevierMultimedia ident="tbl0020"></elsevierMultimedia></span><span id="sec0030" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0090">Discusi&#243;n</span><p id="par0155" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">La poblaci&#243;n traum&#225;tica ingresada en nuestra UCI tiene caracter&#237;sticas similares a otras series tanto a nivel nacional como internacional&#46; Se trata de pacientes j&#243;venes de predominio masculino&#44; con pocas comorbilidades seg&#250;n la clasificaci&#243;n ASA-PS y una mortalidad del 14&#37;&#46; En nuestra serie los accidentes de tr&#225;fico superan la mitad de los ingresos&#44; aunque las ca&#237;das y precipitaciones van aumentando en su incidencia<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0220"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">9&#44;20</span></a>&#46;</p><p id="par0160" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">La gravedad de un traumatismo se puede definir seg&#250;n el grado de severidad de las lesiones anat&#243;micas &#40;AIS&#44; ISS&#44; NISS&#41;&#46; El modelo anat&#243;mico ISS no sigue una funci&#243;n creciente de mortalidad<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0280"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">21&#44;22</span></a>&#46; Est&#225; demostrado que la escala ISS infraestima la mortalidad a valores bajos pero sobrestima en los valores m&#225;s altos<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0290"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">23</span></a>&#46; Este mismo comportamiento se observa en nuestra serie&#46;</p><p id="par0165" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">En 1997 Osler et al&#46; propuso una modificaci&#243;n de la escala ISS que inclu&#237;a las lesiones anat&#243;micas m&#225;s graves independientemente de la regi&#243;n corporal afectada &#40;NISS&#41;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0235"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">12</span></a>&#46; La mayor&#237;a de los estudios coinciden en que NISS tiene mayor capacidad de discriminaci&#243;n y calibraci&#243;n que ISS como es nuestro caso&#46; NISS es equivalente a ISS en lesionados leves pero mejora significativamente en lesionados graves y en aquellos que sufren un traumatismo craneal<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0295"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">24</span></a>&#46;</p><p id="par0170" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Una valoraci&#243;n exclusivamente anat&#243;mica no es suficiente para valorar la gravedad ya que depende de la repercusi&#243;n fisiol&#243;gica<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0300"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">25</span></a>&#46; Cl&#225;sicamente el modelo m&#225;s utilizado es la metodolog&#237;a TRISS que combina el aspecto anat&#243;mico y el fisiol&#243;gico<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0210"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">7</span></a>&#46; A las lesiones anat&#243;micas &#40;ISS&#41; se le une la repercusi&#243;n fisiol&#243;gica &#40;RTS&#41; y la reserva fisiol&#243;gica &#40;edad&#41; seg&#250;n el tipo de trauma contuso o penetrante&#46; TRISS es un excelente <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">score</span> pron&#243;stico en pacientes j&#243;venes con lesiones anat&#243;micas graves &#40;ISS<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#62;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>15&#41; pero infraestima la mortalidad en los pacientes mayores de 60 a&#241;os<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0305"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">26</span></a>&#46; Actualmente se observa un aumento progresivo de la edad de los pacientes traum&#225;ticos graves<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0220"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">9&#44;20</span></a>&#46;</p><p id="par0175" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Chico-Fern&#225;ndez et al&#46; aplicaron la metodolog&#237;a TRISS en el estudio de pacientes traum&#225;ticos graves ingresados en las UCI espa&#241;olas mostrando buenos niveles de discriminaci&#243;n pero una calibraci&#243;n inadecuada&#44; especialmente en el traumatismo cerrado&#46; En el mismo trabajo se observ&#243; que la metodolog&#237;a TRISS infraestim&#243; la mortalidad en los pacientes con mortalidad predicha baja y la sobreestim&#243; en pacientes con mortalidad predicha elevada<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0310"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">27</span></a>&#46;</p><p id="par0180" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">No olvidemos que la valoraci&#243;n fisiol&#243;gica de TRISS se basa en el <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">score</span> RTS que fue dise&#241;ado para el triaje en el lugar del accidente y la necesidad de trasladar a un paciente a un centro de trauma<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0315"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">28</span></a>&#46;</p><p id="par0185" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Es importante valorar la gravedad de la poblaci&#243;n a estudio&#46; En el trabajo de Kahloul et al&#46; de pacientes traum&#225;ticos con menor gravedad &#40;ISS<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>9&#41;&#44; los <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">scores</span> anat&#243;micos tienen mejor calibraci&#243;n que los fisiol&#243;gicos&#44; incluso los modelos mixtos apenas mejoran la misma<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0320"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">29</span></a>&#46; Cuanto mayor sea la repercusi&#243;n fisiol&#243;gica debido a la gravedad de las lesiones&#44; como en el subgrupo de pacientes ingresados en UCI&#44; mayor importancia tendr&#225; la utilizaci&#243;n de <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">scores</span> fisiol&#243;gicos&#46;</p><p id="par0190" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Las escalas de predicci&#243;n de mortalidad que se utilizan en UCI &#40;APACHE <span class="elsevierStyleSmallCaps">II</span>&#44; SAPS <span class="elsevierStyleSmallCaps">II</span> y MPM <span class="elsevierStyleSmallCaps">II</span>-24&#41; no fueron dise&#241;adas espec&#237;ficamente para la poblaci&#243;n traum&#225;tica<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0225"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">10</span></a>&#46; Estos <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">scores</span> aportan informaci&#243;n de la reserva fisiol&#243;gica y la repercusi&#243;n fisiol&#243;gica del traumatismo pero carecen de la valoraci&#243;n anat&#243;mica&#46;</p><p id="par0195" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Al inicio de los a&#241;os 90 se publicaban los primero trabajos con la escala APACHE en poblaci&#243;n traum&#225;tica donde APACHE <span class="elsevierStyleSmallCaps">II</span> se mostraba como un buen predictor de mortalidad respecto al RTS e ISS<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0325"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">30</span></a>&#46; Posteriormente otros autores observaban una mala correlaci&#243;n con la mortalidad y &#250;nicamente en subgrupos de pacientes &#40;alta comorbilidad y en traumatismo craneoencef&#225;lico&#41; mejora su capacidad de discriminaci&#243;n<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0330"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">31&#44;32</span></a>&#46; En el trabajo de Dossett et al&#46; APACHE <span class="elsevierStyleSmallCaps">II</span> se mostraba como un buen predictor de mortalidad atribuido a la importancia de las variables fisiol&#243;gicas como temperatura&#44; creatinina s&#233;rica y GCS<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0340"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">33</span></a>&#46;</p><p id="par0200" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">En un estudio realizado en 6&#46;905 pacientes traum&#225;ticos graves ingresados en UCI&#44; el modelo fisiol&#243;gico SAPS <span class="elsevierStyleSmallCaps">II</span> sobrestimaba la mortalidad principalmente en el subgrupo de pacientes que son intervenidos de forma urgente y pacientes menores de 60 a&#241;os&#46; La fusi&#243;n de los 2 <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">scores</span> &#40;SAPS-TRISS&#41; mejora el ajuste de riesgo<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0305"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">26</span></a>&#46;</p><p id="par0205" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">En los &#250;ltimos a&#241;os se ha producido un aumento significativo de la edad de los pacientes traum&#225;ticos y de las comorbilidades asociadas con una mayor repercusi&#243;n fisiol&#243;gica<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0310"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">27</span></a>&#46; Este hecho puede explicar la mejor capacidad de calibraci&#243;n y discriminaci&#243;n de los <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">scores</span> fisiol&#243;gicos o mixtos<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0180"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">1&#44;29</span></a>&#46;</p><p id="par0210" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Dentro de nuestros resultados&#44; encontramos una buena correlaci&#243;n entre los distintos <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">scores</span> analizados lo que demuestra la correlaci&#243;n entre la gravedad de las lesiones anat&#243;micas y la repercusi&#243;n fisiol&#243;gica&#46;</p><p id="par0215" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Aunque el modelo fisiol&#243;gico APACHE <span class="elsevierStyleSmallCaps">II</span> es el que ofrece una mayor capacidad de discriminaci&#243;n&#44; debe complementarse en el modelo anat&#243;mico &#40;ISS&#41; en ciertos grupos de pacientes&#46; La metodolog&#237;a de &#225;rboles de clasificaci&#243;n es capaz de encontrar estos grupos con caracter&#237;sticas diferenciales&#46; El grupo de pacientes con puntuaciones relativamente bajas en APACHE <span class="elsevierStyleSmallCaps">II</span> &#40;en nuestros resultados entre 10 y 17 puntos&#41; deben diferenciarse seg&#250;n su afectaci&#243;n medida por el ISS&#46; Esta puntuaci&#243;n en APACHE <span class="elsevierStyleSmallCaps">II</span> puede ser debida a pacientes mayores con comorbilidades asociadas&#44; o a pacientes j&#243;venes con traumatismo craneoencef&#225;lico y afectaci&#243;n neurol&#243;gica &#40;medida con la escala de Glasgow&#41;&#46; Es en estos pacientes j&#243;venes y sin antecedentes de enfermedad cr&#243;nica donde la afectaci&#243;n neurol&#243;gica condiciona una mayor mortalidad que no parece discriminar una puntuaci&#243;n del modelo APACHE <span class="elsevierStyleSmallCaps">II</span>&#46;</p><p id="par0220" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">La principal limitaci&#243;n de nuestro trabajo es que ha sido realizado en un solo centro y con un tama&#241;o limitado de pacientes&#46; Para poder generalizar nuestros resultados habr&#237;a que comprobarlos en otros grupos de pacientes&#46;</p><p id="par0225" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Otra de las limitaciones viene determinada por la mala calibraci&#243;n que obtienen los distintos modelos aplicados a nuestra serie de pacientes traum&#225;ticos ingresados en UCI&#46; Otros trabajos tambi&#233;n han encontrado este resultado<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0195"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">4&#44;34</span></a>&#46; Este hecho nos obliga a buscar nuevos modelos&#44; o modificaciones de los disponibles&#44; para mejorar la precisi&#243;n en determinar la gravedad en este grupo de pacientes&#46;</p><p id="par0230" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">En los pacientes traum&#225;ticos ingresados en UCI los modelos fisiol&#243;gicos presentan ventajas sobre los anat&#243;micos&#46; Hay subgrupos de estos pacientes &#40;con puntuaciones bajas en los <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">scores</span> fisiol&#243;gicos&#41; que requieren la participaci&#243;n de la repercusi&#243;n anat&#243;mica para una correcta determinaci&#243;n de su gravedad&#46;</p></span><span id="sec0035" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0095">Autor&#237;a</span><p id="par0235" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">LS y JT dise&#241;aron el trabajo y analizaron los resultados&#46; Todos los autores participaron en la recogida de datos&#44; interpretaci&#243;n de resultados y realizaci&#243;n de las conclusiones&#46; para la elaboraci&#243;n del manuscrito&#44; todos los autores contribuyeron y aceptaron el documento final&#46;</p></span><span id="sec0040" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0100">Conflicto de intereses</span><p id="par0245" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">No conflicto de intereses&#46;</p></span></span>"
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        "resumen" => "<span id="abst0005" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0010">Introducci&#243;n</span><p id="spar0005" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Comparar los <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">scores</span> de gravedad anat&#243;micos y fisiol&#243;gicos en los pacientes traum&#225;ticos ingresados en unidad de cuidados intensivos &#40;UCI&#41; y crear modelos combinados que mejoren su precisi&#243;n&#46;</p></span> <span id="abst0010" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0015">M&#233;todo</span><p id="spar0010" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Estudio prospectivo de cohorte observacional&#46; UCI polivalente de un hospital universitario de 2&#46;<span class="elsevierStyleSup">o</span> nivel&#46; Se incluyeron los pacientes traum&#225;ticos mayores de 16 a&#241;os ingresados en UCI &#40;n<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>780&#41;&#46; Se comparan los modelos anat&#243;micos &#40;ISS&#44; NISS&#41; con los modelos fisiol&#243;gicos &#40;T-RTS&#44; APACHE <span class="elsevierStyleSmallCaps">II</span> &#91;APII&#93;&#41;&#44; MPM <span class="elsevierStyleSmallCaps">II</span>&#41;&#46; La probabilidad de muerte se calcul&#243; seg&#250;n metodolog&#237;a TRISS&#46; La discriminaci&#243;n se valor&#243; mediante curvas ROC &#40;ABC &#91;IC 95&#37;&#93;&#41; y la calibraci&#243;n con el estad&#237;stico H de Hosmer-Lemeshow&#46; Los modelos combinados se realizaron con metodolog&#237;a de &#225;rboles de clasificaci&#243;n tipo <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">Chi Square Automatic Interaction Detection</span>&#46;</p></span> <span id="abst0015" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0020">Resultados</span><p id="spar0015" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Mortalidad global del 14&#37;&#46; Los modelos fisiol&#243;gicos son los que presentan mejores valores de discriminaci&#243;n &#40;APII con 0&#44;87 &#91;0&#44;84-0&#44;90&#93;&#41;&#46; Todos los modelos tienen una mala calibraci&#243;n &#40;p<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#60;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#44;01&#41;&#46; El mejor modelo combinado es el que utiliza APII junto a ISS &#40;0&#44;88 &#91;0&#44;83-0&#44;90&#93;&#41; y encuentra un grupo de pacientes &#40;valores de APII entre 10-17&#41; que necesita la puntuaci&#243;n ISS &#40;punto de corte de 22&#41; para diferenciar entre mortalidad del 7&#44;5&#37; asociada a pacientes mayores con antecedentes patol&#243;gicos y del 25&#44;0&#37; en pacientes con mayor presencia de TCE&#46;</p></span> <span id="abst0020" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0025">Conclusiones</span><p id="spar0020" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Los modelos fisiol&#243;gicos presentan ventajas sobre los anat&#243;micos en los pacientes traum&#225;ticos ingresados en UCI&#46; Los pacientes con puntuaciones bajas en los modelos fisiol&#243;gicos requieren del an&#225;lisis anat&#243;mico de las lesiones para determinar su gravedad&#46;</p></span>"
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        "resumen" => "<span id="abst0025" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0035">Introduction</span><p id="spar0025" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">The goals of this project were to compare both the anatomic and physiologic severity scores in trauma patients admitted to intensive care unit &#40;ICU&#41;&#44; and to elaborate mixed statistical models to improve the precision of the scores&#46;</p></span> <span id="abst0030" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0040">Methods</span><p id="spar0030" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">A prospective study of cohorts&#46; The combined medical&#47;surgical ICU in a secondary university hospital&#46; Seven hundred and eighty trauma patients admitted to ICU older than 16 years of age&#46; Anatomic models &#40;ISS and NISS&#41; were compared and combined with physiological models &#40;T-RTS&#44; APACHE <span class="elsevierStyleSmallCaps">II</span> &#91;APII&#93;&#44; and MPM <span class="elsevierStyleSmallCaps">II</span>&#41;&#46; The probability of death was calculated following the TRISS method&#46; The discrimination was assessed using ROC curves &#40;ABC &#91;CI 95&#37;&#93;&#41;&#44; and the calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow&#769;s H test&#46; The mixed models were elaborated with the tree classification method type Chi Square Automatic Interaction Detection&#46;</p></span> <span id="abst0035" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0045">Results</span><p id="spar0035" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">A 14&#37; global mortality was recorded&#46; The physiological models presented the best discrimination values &#40;APII of 0&#46;87 &#91;0&#46;84-0&#46;90&#93;&#41;&#46; All models were affected by bad calibration &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">P</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#60;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#46;01&#41;&#46; The best mixed model resulted from the combination of APII and ISS &#40;0&#46;88 &#91;0&#46;83-0&#46;90&#93;&#41;&#46; This model was able to differentiate between a 7&#46;5&#37; mortality for elderly patients with pathological antecedents and a 25&#37; mortality in patients presenting traumatic brain injury&#44; from a pool of patients with APII values ranging from 10 to 17 and an ISS threshold of 22&#46;</p></span> <span id="abst0040" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0050">Conclusions</span><p id="spar0040" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">The physiological models perform better than the anatomical models in traumatic patients admitted to the ICU&#46; Patients with low scores in the physiological models require an anatomic analysis of the injuries to determine their severity&#46;</p></span>"
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                  \t\t\t\t</td></tr><tr title="table-row"><td class="td-with-role" title="\n
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                  \t\t\t\t"><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>EPOC&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
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                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t ; entry_with_role_rowhead " align="left" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t"><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>Moderado&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
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                  \t\t\t\t">32&#44;7&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
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                  \t\t\t\t ; entry_with_role_rowhead " align="left" valign="\n
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                  \t\t\t\t"><span class="elsevierStyleItalic">Etiolog&#237;a &#40;&#37;&#41;</span>&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
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                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t">&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
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